COVID-19: impact on the energy market
Publicado em 26 de March de 2020
The Coronavirus pandemic has affected the Brazilian economy and last week the Brazilian government announced the reduction of the forecast of growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 0.02% in 2020. Initially, the Covid-19 pandemic had hit the financial, oil and gas markets. Nowadays, with the changes in business routine and the decrees that restrict economic and social activities through social isolation, many companies have had to temporarily close their doors, going on collective holidays or starting teleworking. With that the impact extends for the projection of national cargo and energy prices.
Based on the current situation, MegaWatt Consultoria recently presented two possible scenarios for the projection of the load in the National Interconnected System (SIN), based on the GDP index, which indicate a drop in the load of 4 to 8%, while the Price of Settlement of Differences (PLD) would fall to R$ 39.68 / MW for all submarkets until, at least, the month of May.
In this context, the first scenario presented takes into account a GDP of 0.02%, with no forecast of cargo growth. Thus, there would be a 4% load reduction, reducing from 71GW average to 68GW average and, then, the forecast would be of minimum PLD until May, increasing from June. Thus, in September, PLD prices could reach R $ 136.54 / MWh, in the South, Southeast and North submarkets, and R $ 117 / MWh in the Northeast submarket.
The second scenario, on the other hand, considered a negative GDP and a reduction of 8% in relation to what had been forecast for 2020. Therefore, the prospect would be of floor value for all submarkets until July, reaching R$ 76.19/MWh in September for the North, South and Southeast submarkets and R$ 75.45/MWh in the Northeast submarket.
According to ONS (National Electric System Operator), on March 22, 2020 the drop in consumption reached almost 9% if compared to March 15, 2020, a reduction of 5,509MWmed.
SOURCES:
MEGAWATT. Covid-19: com pib quase nulo em 2020, carga pode cair 4% e PLD deve ficar no piso até maio. Disponível em: https://megawhat.energy/ news/88418/covid-19-com-pib-nulo-em-2020-carga-pode-cair-4-e-pld-deve-ficar-no-piso-ate-maio
ONS. ONS verifica redução da carga média de energia nos últimos dias. Disponível em: http://www.ons.org.br/Paginas/Noticias/20200323_ONS-verifica-redução-da-carga-média-de-energia-nos-últimos-dias.aspx
UOL. Governo prevê crescimento do PIB quase nulo em 2020. Disponível em: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAwEgqSK2qc