Covid-19: crisis impact on global energy demand and CO2 emissions
Publicado em 16 de July de 2020
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), uncertanties due to public health, economy and, off course, energy during the rest of 2020 are an unprecedent event. With that in mind, IEA expanded the analysis made through the Global Energy Review and try to find a possible way to energy’s use and CO2 emissions. Besides that, it also highlight the factors that can lead to different results.
The Agency considers that Covid-19 pandemic is, above it all, a global health crisis. On April 28th, there were 3 million confirmed cases and more than 200.000 death cases due to the disease. As a consequence of the efforts to contain the vírus dissemination, the share of energy use that was exposed to the containment measures rose from 5% in March, to 50% in April.
In addition to the immediate impact on health, the crisis also has important implications on global economy, on energy use and on CO2 emissions. The analysis of daily data till mid-April shows that countries in complete lockdown have experienced an average decline of 25% in energy demand per week. Countries in partial lockdown, on the other hand, showed an average decline of 18%. Daily data collected in 30 countries on April 14, which represents more than two-thirds of global energy demand, show that the drop in demand depends on the duration and severity of the lockdown measures.
Energy global demand decreased 3,8% on the first quarter of 2020. Mosto f the impact was felt in march, whe lockdown measures were applied in Europe, North America and other countries. Therefore, we can see that coal global demand decreased almost 8% if compared to the first quarter of 2019. Oil demand, on the other hand, decreased 5%. Ong as demand, A demanda de petróleo, por sua vez, sofreu uma redução de 5%. In the demand for gas, the impact of the pandemic was moderate, resulting in a reduction of approximately 2%. Renewable energies were the only source that registered an increase in demand, which was driven by greater installed capacity and priority shipment.
Electricity demand, in turn, decreased by 20% or more during periods of total lockdown in several countries. Thus, the drop is due to the fact that the increase in residential demand is far outpaced by the reduction in commercial and industrial operations. For weeks, the demand resembled that of a long Sunday. The drop in consumption increased the share of renewable sources in electricity supply.
Looking at the whole year, we see a scenario that quantifies the energy impacts of a widespread global recession, caused by months of restrictions on mobility and social and economic activities. In this scenario, the recovery from the depths of the blocking recession is only gradual. In addition, it is accompanied by a substantial permanent loss of economic activity, despite the efforts of macroeconomic policies.
The result of this scenario is a 6% contraction in energy demand, the largest in 70 years in percentage terms. Thus, it can be said that Covid-19’s impact on energy demand in 2020 would be seven times greater than the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on global energy demand, reaching all fuels.
Demand for oil may fall 9% over the year, returning the oil consumption to the levels of 2012. In the case of coal, demand may fall 8% over the year. The demand for gas, in turn, may fall even more over the year than in the first quarter. Demand for nuclear power would also fall in response to lower electricity demand. Demand for renewable sources, on the other hand, is expected to increase due to low operating costs and preferential access to many energy systems. In addition, the recent capacity growth, as well as some new projects that come on stream in 2020, would also increase the production.
IEA’s estimate for 2020 shows that global electricity demand will fall by around 5%, with reductions of 10% in some regions. Low-carbon sources would far outpace coal generation worldwide, expanding the leadership established in 2019.
Global CO2 emissions are expected to drop 8%, or almost 2.6 gigatonnes (Gt), reaching levels of 10 years ago. This year-over-year reduction would be the largest ever. It is six times greater than the previous record reduction of 0.4 Gt in 2009 – caused by the global financial crisis. In addition, it is twice as large as the combined total of all previous reductions since the end of World War II. As with the end of previous crises, however, the recovery in emissions could be bigger than the decline, unless the wave of investments to restart the economy is dedicated to a cleaner and more resilient energy infrastructure.
SOURCES: Agência Internacional de Energia. The impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on global energy demand and CO2 emissions. Disponível em: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2020